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C A R I B B E A N C
O M M U N I T Y S
E C R E T A R I A T
THIRTY- FIRST MEETING OF THE
STANDING COMMITTEE OF
6-8 November 2006 1 November 2006
CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE This report summarizes the various achievements, and
developments of the Dominica Central Statistical Office from July 2005 to June
2006 and outlines the proposed work programme for the period July 2006 to June
2007. ORGANISATION The Central Statistical Office is a division within the
Ministry of Finance and Planning and operates under the Census and Statistics
Act. No. 17 of 1986. The Central Statistical Office continues to function with
a staff of fifteen persons remaining stable over the last year but recording a
reduction of 12 percent in established positions from the 2001/2003
period. This reduction resulted from the
imposition of cost-saving measures in government expenditure. POSTS NUMBER PROPOSED 2003/2004 2004/2005
2005/2006 2006/2007 No.
Est. No. filled
Est. No. filled
Est. No.
filled Est. No. filled Chief
Statistician 1 1 1 1
1
1 1 1 Statistician 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3 Administrative
Cadet 1 1 1 1
1
1 1 1 Administrative
Asst. 1 1 1 1
1 1
1 1 Statistical
Officer I 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 Statistical
Officer II 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Statistical
Officer III 3 3 3 3
3 3 3 2 Data Entry Clerk 1 1 1 1
1
1 1 1 Junior
Clerk/Typist 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Office Attendant 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Cleaner (Part-time) 1 1 1 1 1
0
0
1 (non-
established) -------
------- ------
----- -----
----
------ ----- 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 Note: No: Number Est: Establishment Departmental
arrangements have been made for the data
entry clerk and Statistical Officer III functions
from the 2003/2004
and 2006/2007 periods (respectively). The organizational structure includes four units as
follows: (1) - Economic Statistics (2) - Social and Demographic Statistics (3) - Computing and Surveys (4) - Administrative and General Services An organizational chart is shown at Appendix I Economics Statistics National Accounts
and Balance of Payments The National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics
are compiled annually on the basis of establishment's surveys and supplemented
with administrative data from the divisions of Treasury, Ministry of Finance
and Planning, Inland Revenue and the National Development Corporation (NDC). Data compiled in the National Accounts refers
to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) classified by economic activity (current and
constant prices) and GDP by expenditure (current prices). The GDP estimates for 2004 have been
finalized while preliminary estimates for 2005 and projections for 2006 have
been made. An overview of the economy
for the year 2005 was prepared. An exercise for the rebasing of National Accounts has
commenced, with the year 2000 chosen as
the base year in order to facilitate comparison among the CARICOM countries. Efforts are being made to expand the National Accounts
Statistics in developing the Supply and Use tables. Presently, the products and industries have
been chose, while a comprehensive business register was developed primarily to
establish a framework for sampling.
Additionally, the ground work is being done in order to begin the
compilation of the Tourism Satellite Accounts.
In August, 2006, a workshop was conducted with a view to develop a
tourism satellite account. During this
workshop the statistical data available was analyzed and the strengths,
weaknesses and data gaps were closely examined. Presently, the Balance of Payments for 2005 has been
finalized while projections for 2006 have been made. Report on Supply and
Use Tables Technical Assistance The consultancy and technical assistance for the Supply
and Use Tables (SUT) for During the mission the following activities were
performed:
Preliminary data checks were performed such as:-
§
Elimination
of conceptual mistakes §
Simplification
of the organization of data. Originally,
the data were organized by year which resulted in a number of disadvantages.
However, the data was organized by 17 industries each of which contain data for
all years. §
The
population census 2001 data was cross tabulated between employment by industry
and type of employment §
Data
on crops produced in ·
The
business register was classified according to ISIC and in terms of the product
that is being produced by that industry §
Foreign
trade statistics were converted from HS8 digit format to HS96 format to CPC 1.0
format. §
The
classification of the CPI survey in terms of CPC 1.0 commenced during the
mission. §
Transport
equipment and other equipment from the import data of 2001 (for capital
formation) were classified according to CPC 1.0. The technical assistance received so far for the
development of the Supply and Use table has been a learning experience for the
Central Statistical Office staff.
Confidence in the development of the System of National Accounts and SUT
have increased significantly and a greater understanding of the process
involved in the SUT have been obtained. Additionally, a more comprehensive Business Register which
will provide a better base for sampling has been developed. To complete the SUT, at least one additional mission is
required in order to develop the frameworks and applications of the Bayesian
estimation approach using the software program. Following the mission, the Central Statistical Office will
be able to produce the SUT, since a
thorough explanation of the process and a step-by-step demonstration of each
phase have been executed. Work in Progress
Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) Following a
workshop conducted by the CARICOM in Tourism Satellite Account is an organized system of economic statistics on tourism with detailed description of tourism consumption and more generally tourism demand and their relationship with supply by tourism and other related activities. Dr. Philomen Harrison, Caricom Statistics Program Manager coordinated workshop activities. A Consultant from the Spanish firm ARALDI, conducted sessions, closely examining the various tourism statistical systems and surveys in order to provide assistance and recommendation for accurate, harmonized, consistent and reliable data. Participants came from Caricom, Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Tourism, National Development Corporation, Dominica Police Force - Immigration Department and Dominica Hotel Association. With the current focus on the development and expansion of the Tourism Sector, the TSA will greatly facilitate comprehensive, detailed analysis for policy decision since it provides detailed information on tourism consumption, and demand.
Follow-up
meetings to address current data,
scrutinize existing tourism data systems and
ensure reliability and accuracy in data output have been held as
follows: on the 27th September 2006 with officials from the National
Development Corporation (NDC). The main tasks to be undertaken were the revision
of the new Exit/Departure (ED) card and the review of the Visitor Expenditure
and Motivation Survey; officials from the Central Statistical Office and the
National Development Corporation met with tourism industry vendors on the 11th
October 2006. The main purpose of the
meeting was to sensitize vendors on the data required for the TSA and to
solicit their cooperation in providing the data. A meeting with officials from the Ministry of
Legal Affairs is scheduled for October 17 2006.
The main purpose is to discuss
the revised E/D Card. Government Finance Government data for the fiscal year 2004/2005 has been
converted into calendar year, analyzed and classified into the functions of
Government (COFOG). Agricultural Production The Statistical Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture
provided data on crop production for the year 2004, 2005 and preliminary
estimates for 2006. Quarterly Economic
Indicators The publishing of these quarterly indicators provides a
general picture of the state of At the end of 2005, a comprehensive report was presented
on the state of the economy utilizing most of the data compiled during the year
and published in the quarterly reports. This annual review provided the government and the general
public with much needed information on the overall economic situation in the
country. Economic indicators for the
first two quarters of 2006 have been prepared and published, while work has been
complted on the third quarter indicators. International Trade
Statistics Trade data processing continues to be an important
function of the Central Statistical Office.
Five persons are currently working full-time in this area. Processing of the 2005 trade data has been
finalized and reports published. In
addition, the following activities have been accomplished in respect of 2005
and 2006. 2005: Processing of 2005 External Trade Index
Numbers -
Annual Report on External Trade (summary tables) for 2005
was published. 2006 - Identifying
errors, inconsistencies and computer editing of exports for January to September - ASYCUDA
transfers and data entry of imports for January - August 2006 are completed. -
Identifying
errors, inconsistencies and computer editing of imports for January to July 2006. Presently, the Central Statistical
Office is using the 1993 version of EUROTRACE which is running on Windows
95. The office obtained a new windows
version of EUROTRACE from EUROSTAT in 2004. Current Status Report on New Version of EUROTRACE In May 2006 the Central
Statistical Office configured the Eurotrace database in order to facilitate the
2002 HS Tariff and Valued Added Tax (VAT) . Presently data up to September 2006
is processed using the 2002 HS codes. Price Statistics Project -
Developing Trade Index for At the request of the Dominica
Central Statistical Office (CSO), for technical assistance in constructing
Trade Index Numbers a two member IMF/CARTAC team visited the Central
Statistical Office during the week of December 13 - 17, 2004 to develop export
and import price indices for goods and major services (XMPIS). An Interim Report on the mission was prepared
by John Sundgren. A follow-up visit was
conducted from May 9-13, 2005. The
following presents part of the progress report of that mission. "During the December 2004 mission
to The task of this second mission to
Outcome of the As a result of the excellent
cooperation and dedication of the Central Statistical Office, most of the above
tasks were accomplished during the short visit.
Acceptable 2004 price and weight data are now available for most
establishments included in the sample.
An Excel-program has been developed to calculate the indices and produce
tables fit for publication. However, due to the scarcity of
field visits resources at the Central Statistical Office and the reluctance of
a few major importers to provide the price data needed, the sample coverage for
imports appear to be insufficient. An
attempt was made to extract the missing data from customs records, but because
of the paucity of imports it turned out to be very difficult to find the
monthly price data needed from this source.
Also, some importers with a wide variety of imports experience
difficulties in selecting the items and varieties to be priced. However, here we were able to limit the
sample to a few representative varieties through repeat visits or by selecting
the sample of varieties used in the CPI". Progress Report on the Computation of Import/Export Indices Following the conclusion of the
mission the continued tasks were as follows: §
Obtain
missing price and weighted data for the
year 2004 and the first two quarters of 2005. §
Obtain
an estimate of the percent distribution of exports and imports among the
selected items, during the July round of visits. §
The
spreadsheet developed for the calculation of the imports price index should be
finalized. §
By
October 2005, all price indices should be ready for publication, including a
summary table for exports and imports prices by major S.I.T.C. and BEC groups. §
Review
a copy of the spreadsheet tabulation well
in advance of the publication of the
indices. All the above tasks along with the
export indices for 2005 were completed and the final spreadsheet containing the
computations forwarded for a thorough review and feed back. Following review, the spreadsheet with the
datasets and computation were finalized, and indices presented as follows: Table 1 Quarterly Import Price Indices for 2005
Table 2 Quarterly Export Price Indices for 2005
Table 3
The Indices for 2005 will be published in the 2006 Annual
External Trade Report. Consumer Price Index The current Consumer Price Index is based on the Dominica
Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) which was conducted from
November 1997 to December 1998 and covered all population zones or parishes. The survey covered 1000 households distributed almost
evenly over a twelve-month period. It
was also necessary for the survey design to take into account the need to have
each census division adequately represented. Administratively, St. George, Development of the
Consumer Price Index Data on expenditure collected during the conduct of the HIES
formed the basis for the development of the Consumer Price Index (C.P.I.). A total of 1000 households were interviewed. For the development of the C.P.I. all households from
which data were collected, except those with zero income, were utilized. This resulted in data from 858 households
being used in the development of the C.P.I.
In addition, only items or services bought in the country were
utilized. Households kept diaries for two
weeks on expenditure for Food, Alcoholic Drink, and Tobacco. Expenditure on Accommodation, Fuel and Light,
Household Furniture and Furnishings, Transport and Communication, Medical
Expenses, Education and Recreation was kept for one year. Where the diary was not completed, an
estimate was made for monthly expenditure on food, based on the household size
and income. There were varying reference periods of expenditure for
the different sectors. For Clothing and
Footwear the period of expenditure was three months while expenditure on
Households Operations was for one month.
Miscellaneous expenses were also collected in the diary. However in the
development of the CPI all expenditure were expressed on a monthly basis after which the average
expenditure per households by sector was derived. From these, using a base of 1000, weights
were then allocated to each sector. In
determining item weights, the weight of each sector was proportionately
allocated in the items that make up that sector. A total number of 374 items are recorded from 102
sources. These sources exclude Rent,
which is measured in eight categories from 49 households. The period of price collection for this series
is the 08th to 21st of every month. The base is January 2001. The Consumer Price Index measures eleven groups namely
Food, Alcoholic Drink and Tobacco, Clothing and Footwear, Housing and
Utilities, Fuel and Light, Medical and Health Expenses, Household and
Furniture, Transportation and Communication, Educational Expenses, Personal
Care Services, Miscellaneous/Other. From the 1997/1998 survey, three new sub-groups, Housing
Mortgage Interest Payments, Hospital Expenses, and Health Insurance were
included in the index. The table below
shows the shifting of sub-group to new groups; this explains why certain groups
are not strictly comparable, over the two survey periods (1992 and 1998). Sub Groups Shifts
1992 - 1998
The Consumer Price Index continues to remain the most
timely series. The 2005 Annual Report was published and contains information
from 1995. Presently, the First and
Second Quarter and half yearly and monthly reports up to September 2006 are
published. SOCIAL AND
DEMOGRAPHIC Statistical Digest The last comprehensive Statistical Digest for The publication contains thirteen sections as stated
hereunder: Section
I : Population and Vital Statistics Section
II : Climate Section
III : Travel and Tourism Section
IV : Prices, Labour and Economic Activity Section
V : Social Conditions/Electorate Section
VI : Transport and Communication Section
VII : Production Section
VIII : Public Finance Section
IX : Banking Section
X : National Accounts and Balance of Payments Section
XI : Trade Section
XII : Infrastructure Section
XIII : Miscellaneous The statistical digest provides researchers, scholars,
organizations and others interested in economic and social trends in Travel and Tourism A new computer program, Management Information System for
Tourism (MIST) introduced by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation, replaced the
former IMPS Program in June 2001. The following reports have been published: Ø Annual Travel Report for 2004
(covering the period 1994 to 2004) Data Available: Ø 2005 Monthly (January to December) There is however, a lag in continuation of regular
monthly, quarterly and half yearly series (publications) from 2001 as a result
of the earlier cleaning process of the MIST Program and a gap in entries from
the data source. Demographic
Statistics Demographic Statistics No. 4 of 2004 was published by the Central
Statistics Office in June 2005. This
issue presents data from the last century ( in selected tables). It also provides data on vital events (births,
deaths, marriages, divorces), fertility, mortality, migration and household composition. The report intends to assist policy-makers,
planners, administrators, researchers, students and others interested in
demographic trends in Education Statistics No. 2 was published by the Central
Statistical Office in February 197. The Education Planning Unit of Ministry of
Education has been publishing Education Indicators Report, the most recent for
2005. However, work is in progress for
Education Statistics No. 3 and a preliminary report will be available by
December 2006. Environmental
Statistics The first issue of the Environmental Statistics Report was
published in August 2002. Topics covered
include Climate, Population, Biodiversity, Energy, Water and Waste, Transport,
Tourism. The presentation of the first
issue was coordinated by the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD)/Caribbean
Community (CARICOM) Project on "Strengthening Capacity in the Compilation of
Statistics Indicators for Conference Follow-up in the Caribbean Region." As part of the project, a staff member of the Central
Statistical Office attended a workshop on Environment Statistics held in Gender Statistics A gender statistics report is prepared and covers data
from 1998 to 2003. The Report includes the 2001 Census information. The full content of Gender Statistics is
presented in the MDG National Report. MILLENNIUM
DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDG) The first national report of the MDG was completed in July
2006. The report represented the joint
(CARICOM) Social and Indicators and (UN) Millennium Development Goals on
Population and Family, Poverty, Education, Health, Environment, Global
Partnership in Development (Economy, Employment/Labor Force), Information and
Communication, Decision-Making and Crime.
The data mainly covers the period 1991, 1997 and 1998 to 2003. Definitions and Methodologies (MDG) Definitions and methodologies are referred to in table
footnotes. Analysis and
Recommendation (MDG) A brief analysis based on selected indicators precedes
each set of indicator. Recommendations are presented based on data trends and
appropriate and relevant targets, since Localizing the
Millennium Development Goals Following the recommended targets of the MDG and the
measurement of achievements, an additional component is adopted in presenting
indicators that are most relevant in the context of national socio-economic
development - localizing. Localizing the
MDG not only involves the popularization of the Goals at all levels of the
society but the process of adapting the targets to local realities with an
assessment of the data's relevance to the country's situation. In In Indicator: Localize Population and Family
▪
Fertility Rates and Age Specific
Fertility Rates ▪ Population Percentage change and intercensal ▪ Annual Rate of Change Poverty: ▪ Per Capita Household Expenditure by
Quintile Education: ▪ Number
of Government Scholarship by Course of
Study and Sex. ▪ Number of Government Scholarship by Course
of Study and Sex. Health: ▪ Population by
Births, Deaths and Net Migration ▪ Mean Population and Vital Rates ▪ Population with Disability by type of
disability Environmental Sustainability: ▪ Households
by Type of Tenure (includes households occupying state or abandoned lands). The other major stage in the localizing process has been
formal launch of the Local Monitoring Framework and the execution of the
comprehensive publicity and other activities plan for the year. The plan of activities will be reviewed
annually with close linkage to the adoption of recommendations, Monitoring and
Evaluation of Recommendation: (MDG) The adoption of recommendations and programmes will be
continuously monitored and evaluated.
Continuous discussions (with policy makers and other stakeholders) on
the achievement and the realization of the recommended targets will form an
integral part of monitoring and evaluation. Assessment of
Targets (MDG) The MDG goals and the achievements of targets have been
measured with an assessment of each target vis-à-vis national data, the
country's socio-economic development programs, and the evaluation of policy
decisions. Current Assessment of Goals
and targets are presented in the MDG national report. Data Gaps and Data
Quality (MDG) Currently two temporary officers have been employed to
complete data gaps and assist departments in the commencement of completing data gaps in Sections Health/AIDS,
Education and Crime. Activities to
accomplish MDG future goals Type of : Surveys Period Frequency Literacy 2007 every two to three
years Survey of Living Conditions 2007 every two to three
years COMPUTER AND SURVEYS Occupational Wage
Survey An Occupational Wage Survey, the first for Survey of Students
of Migrant Parents This survey the first of
its kind was conducted in February 2005.
The purpose of the survey is to
assess the behaviour of students of migrant parents in comparison to students
of resident parents. The coverage was
students of Grade 3 level of Primary
Schools and Forms 3 and 5 of Secondary Schools.
Budget constraints have affected the finalization of the Survey. Labour Force A labour force survey was conducted from 30th
August to 29 September 2005 with August 21 to 29th as the reference period. The survey gathered information on
demographics, employment/unemployment by sex and age-group, employment by
occupation and industry, labor force by level of education, type of training, employment status, hours worked,
migration etc. Labour Force Surveys are
conducted every two years. Budget
constraints have affected the finalization of the survey. SURVEYS 1.
The
2005 Labour Force Survey results is expected to be processed by December 2006,
consequent upon the availability of funds. 2.
The
Second Occupational Wage Survey will be conducted by April 2007 with January
2007 as the reference period. 3.
Analysis
of the Survey of Students of Migrant Parents is expected to be completed by
December 2006 consequent upon the availability of funds. SCOT
(Strength, Challenges, Opportunities, Threats) Strengths The office have increased skills and knowledge over recent
years exposing its staff to continuous capacity -building training. Challenges Although staff movements and turnover have been curtailed
over the last three years, there is still further need for capacity building
particularly in the form of training in the technical areas of the Department
ensuring the smooth flow of operations.
The IT officer is currently on study leave increasing the need for
continuous training for the replacing officer. Opportunities Currently one officer has completed a University
Certificate in Public Administration. This
will create an added future opportunity for enhancing the administrative flow
of operations and to perform on-the-job training in selected areas of
statistics specifically in the Social Statistics Unit. One officer is pursuing studies in Economics
at the first degree level and another Diploma in Management with the University
of the West Indies Continuing Studies Program. The Central Statistical Office has positioned itself to
embrace training opportunities. The
following list presents areas of training and level of participation over the
period July 2005 to September 2006. Training: Period Training/Sponsors Level
of Participation 1. 12-13/09/05 Compilation of Social/Gender Statistical Officer I/ Statistics, Bahamas Economics Unit CARICOM 2. 19-30/09/05 Economic Statistics CARTAC/CARICOM Statistician/Economic
Unit UNDP 3. 10-14/10/05 Tourism Statistics, CTO/EU Social Statistics 4. 9-14/11/05 Development of SUT, IMF/CARTAC Economics
Unit 5. 6-17/2/06 Tourism
Satellite Accounts Asst. Statistician 6. 24-25/04/06 Trade
in Services, OECS Economics Unit 7. 26/06 to Macro
Economics, 06/07/06 IMF/CARTAC Economics Unit 8.
03/07-
Demographic Analysis,
12/08/06 CARICOM/UNECLAC Economics Unit 9. 08-11/08/06 Data
Analysis and Statistician/Surveys Interpretation, OECS MECOVI Project 10. 08-12/08/06 Development of SUT, Dominica Asst. Statistician IMF/CARTAC Economics Unit 11. 14-18/08/2006 Tourism Satellite Account, Statistician/ Dominica, CARICOM/EU Asst. Statistician Economics Unit Statistician/Social Statistician 12. 22-26/05/06 and Updating
EUROTRACE for 13. 21-25/08/06 H.S. and VAT, IMF/CARTAC Statistical Officer II (two officers) Statistician/Economics
Unit Asst .Statistician/Economic
Unit 14. 04-08/09/06 Sampling Methodology Chief
Statistician
OECS MECOVI Project Statistician/Social Statistics Statistician/Surveys Statistical Officer I/Economic Unit 15 18-22/09/06 Dev. Info, 5 Computer
Program Chief Statistician for
MDG Dissemination, Proposed Work
Program 2006/2007 ECONOMICS UNIT National Accounts: Activities Proposed for the National Accounts Series are
as follows:
Activities proposed
for External Trade 2006: finalization
of the 2005 Import and Export Price Indices 2006: computation
of the 01st - 02nd Quarter 2006 Import/Export
Price Indices Continuation
of price collection for imports 2006: Installation
of the new windows version of Eurotrace. (October - December 2006) 2007: The new
windows version of Eurotrace as a pilot study, alongside the DOS Version SOCIAL STATISTICS
UNIT Activities proposed
for Social Statistics Create a Dev. Info. 5 database for MDG and Social
Indicators Dissemination (by December 2006) Explore the possibilities of reviewing and incorporating
Lands and Surveys and Physical Planning Department geographical information
systems with Central Statistical Office Dev. Info. 5 program in preparation for
the mapping phase of 2010 Round of Census. Monitor
and evaluate MDG Program. SURVEYS UNIT Activities for
Surveys Unit Completion of the Establishment Register for Wage Survey
(November 2006) Completion of a National Farm Register (December 2006) Completion of website (December 2006) CONTENTS Outline of
Organisation Structure 1 Current Work Program Economics Statistics Unit 2-10 Social and
Demographic Unit 11-14 Computer
and Surveys Unit 15 Training Opportunities 16-17 Proposed Work Program for 2006/2007 18-19 |
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