C A R I B B E A N C O M M U N I T Y S E C R E T A R I A T
THIRTY- FIRST MEETING OF
THE STANDING COMMITTEE OF
6-8 November 2006 1 November 2006
CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE
This report summarizes the various achievements, and developments of the Dominica Central Statistical Office from July 2005 to June 2006 and outlines the proposed work programme for the period July 2006 to June 2007.
The Central Statistical Office is a division within the Ministry of Finance and Planning and operates under the Census and Statistics Act. No. 17 of 1986.
The Central Statistical Office continues to function with a staff of fifteen persons remaining stable over the last year but recording a reduction of 12 percent in established positions from the 2001/2003 period. This reduction resulted from the imposition of cost-saving measures in government expenditure.
POSTS NUMBER PROPOSED
2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
No. Est. No. filled Est. No. filled Est. No. filled Est. No. filled
Chief Statistician 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Statistician 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Administrative Cadet 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Administrative Asst. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Statistical Officer I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Statistical Officer II 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Statistical Officer III 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2
Data Entry Clerk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Junior Clerk/Typist 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Office Attendant 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Cleaner (Part-time) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
(non- established) ------- ------- ------ ----- ----- ---- ------ -----
16 16 16 16 16 16 15 14
Note: No: Number
Departmental arrangements have been made for the data entry clerk and Statistical
Officer III functions from the 2003/2004 and 2006/2007 periods (respectively).
The organizational structure includes four units as follows:
(1) - Economic Statistics
(2) - Social and Demographic Statistics
(3) - Computing and Surveys
(4) - Administrative and General Services
An organizational chart is shown at Appendix I
National Accounts and Balance of Payments
The National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics are compiled annually on the basis of establishment's surveys and supplemented with administrative data from the divisions of Treasury, Ministry of Finance and Planning, Inland Revenue and the National Development Corporation (NDC). Data compiled in the National Accounts refers to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) classified by economic activity (current and constant prices) and GDP by expenditure (current prices). The GDP estimates for 2004 have been finalized while preliminary estimates for 2005 and projections for 2006 have been made. An overview of the economy for the year 2005 was prepared.
An exercise for the rebasing of National Accounts has commenced, with the year 2000 chosen as the base year in order to facilitate comparison among the CARICOM countries.
Efforts are being made to expand the National Accounts Statistics in developing the Supply and Use tables. Presently, the products and industries have been chose, while a comprehensive business register was developed primarily to establish a framework for sampling. Additionally, the ground work is being done in order to begin the compilation of the Tourism Satellite Accounts. In August, 2006, a workshop was conducted with a view to develop a tourism satellite account. During this workshop the statistical data available was analyzed and the strengths, weaknesses and data gaps were closely examined.
Presently, the Balance of Payments for 2005 has been finalized while projections for 2006 have been made.
Report on Supply and Use Tables Technical Assistance
The consultancy and technical assistance for the Supply
and Use Tables (SUT) for
During the mission the following activities were performed:
Preliminary data checks were performed such as:-
§ Elimination of conceptual mistakes
§ Simplification of the organization of data. Originally, the data were organized by year which resulted in a number of disadvantages. However, the data was organized by 17 industries each of which contain data for all years.
§ The population census 2001 data was cross tabulated between employment by industry and type of employment
on crops produced in
· The business register was classified according to ISIC and in terms of the product that is being produced by that industry
§ Foreign trade statistics were converted from HS8 digit format to HS96 format to CPC 1.0 format.
§ The classification of the CPI survey in terms of CPC 1.0 commenced during the mission.
§ Transport equipment and other equipment from the import data of 2001 (for capital formation) were classified according to CPC 1.0.
The technical assistance received so far for the development of the Supply and Use table has been a learning experience for the Central Statistical Office staff. Confidence in the development of the System of National Accounts and SUT have increased significantly and a greater understanding of the process involved in the SUT have been obtained.
Additionally, a more comprehensive Business Register which will provide a better base for sampling has been developed. To complete the SUT, at least one additional mission is required in order to develop the frameworks and applications of the Bayesian estimation approach using the software program.
Following the mission, the Central Statistical Office will be able to produce the SUT, since a thorough explanation of the process and a step-by-step demonstration of each phase have been executed.
Work in Progress
Tourism Satellite Account (TSA)
workshop conducted by the CARICOM in
Tourism Satellite Account is an organized system of economic statistics on tourism with detailed description of tourism consumption and more generally tourism demand and their relationship with supply by tourism and other related activities.
Dr. Philomen Harrison, Caricom Statistics Program Manager coordinated workshop activities. A Consultant from the Spanish firm ARALDI, conducted sessions, closely examining the various tourism statistical systems and surveys in order to provide assistance and recommendation for accurate, harmonized, consistent and reliable data.
Participants came from Caricom, Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Tourism, National Development Corporation, Dominica Police Force - Immigration Department and Dominica Hotel Association. With the current focus on the development and expansion of the Tourism Sector, the TSA will greatly facilitate comprehensive, detailed analysis for policy decision since it provides detailed information on tourism consumption, and demand.
Follow-up meetings to address current data, scrutinize existing tourism data systems and ensure reliability and accuracy in data output have been held as follows: on the 27th September 2006 with officials from the National Development Corporation (NDC). The main tasks to be undertaken were the revision of the new Exit/Departure (ED) card and the review of the Visitor Expenditure and Motivation Survey; officials from the Central Statistical Office and the National Development Corporation met with tourism industry vendors on the 11th October 2006. The main purpose of the meeting was to sensitize vendors on the data required for the TSA and to solicit their cooperation in providing the data. A meeting with officials from the Ministry of Legal Affairs is scheduled for October 17 2006. The main purpose is to discuss the revised E/D Card.
Government data for the fiscal year 2004/2005 has been converted into calendar year, analyzed and classified into the functions of Government (COFOG).
The Statistical Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture provided data on crop production for the year 2004, 2005 and preliminary estimates for 2006.
Quarterly Economic Indicators
The publishing of these quarterly indicators provides a
general picture of the state of
At the end of 2005, a comprehensive report was presented on the state of the economy utilizing most of the data compiled during the year and published in the quarterly reports.
This annual review provided the government and the general public with much needed information on the overall economic situation in the country. Economic indicators for the first two quarters of 2006 have been prepared and published, while work has been complted on the third quarter indicators.
International Trade Statistics
Trade data processing continues to be an important function of the Central Statistical Office. Five persons are currently working full-time in this area. Processing of the 2005 trade data has been finalized and reports published. In addition, the following activities have been accomplished in respect of 2005 and 2006.
2005: Processing of 2005 External Trade Index Numbers
- Annual Report on External Trade (summary tables) for 2005 was published.
2006 - Identifying errors, inconsistencies and computer editing of exports for January
- ASYCUDA transfers and data entry of imports for January - August 2006 are
- Identifying errors, inconsistencies and computer editing of imports for
January to July 2006.
Presently, the Central Statistical Office is using the 1993 version of EUROTRACE which is running on Windows 95. The office obtained a new windows version of EUROTRACE from EUROSTAT in 2004.
Current Status Report on New Version of EUROTRACE
In May 2006 the Central Statistical Office configured the Eurotrace database in order to facilitate the 2002 HS Tariff and Valued Added Tax (VAT) . Presently data up to September 2006 is processed using the 2002 HS codes.
Price Statistics Project -
Developing Trade Index for
At the request of the Dominica Central Statistical Office (CSO), for technical assistance in constructing Trade Index Numbers a two member IMF/CARTAC team visited the Central Statistical Office during the week of December 13 - 17, 2004 to develop export and import price indices for goods and major services (XMPIS). An Interim Report on the mission was prepared by John Sundgren. A follow-up visit was conducted from May 9-13, 2005. The following presents part of the progress report of that mission.
"During the December 2004 mission
The task of this second mission to
Outcome of the
As a result of the excellent cooperation and dedication of the Central Statistical Office, most of the above tasks were accomplished during the short visit. Acceptable 2004 price and weight data are now available for most establishments included in the sample. An Excel-program has been developed to calculate the indices and produce tables fit for publication.
However, due to the scarcity of field visits resources at the Central Statistical Office and the reluctance of a few major importers to provide the price data needed, the sample coverage for imports appear to be insufficient. An attempt was made to extract the missing data from customs records, but because of the paucity of imports it turned out to be very difficult to find the monthly price data needed from this source. Also, some importers with a wide variety of imports experience difficulties in selecting the items and varieties to be priced. However, here we were able to limit the sample to a few representative varieties through repeat visits or by selecting the sample of varieties used in the CPI".
Progress Report on the Computation of Import/Export Indices
Following the conclusion of the mission the continued tasks were as follows:
§ Obtain missing price and weighted data for the year 2004 and the first two quarters of 2005.
§ Obtain an estimate of the percent distribution of exports and imports among the selected items, during the July round of visits.
§ The spreadsheet developed for the calculation of the imports price index should be finalized.
§ By October 2005, all price indices should be ready for publication, including a summary table for exports and imports prices by major S.I.T.C. and BEC groups.
§ Review a copy of the spreadsheet tabulation well in advance of the publication of the indices.
All the above tasks along with the export indices for 2005 were completed and the final spreadsheet containing the computations forwarded for a thorough review and feed back. Following review, the spreadsheet with the datasets and computation were finalized, and indices presented as follows:
Quarterly Import Price Indices for 2005
Quarterly Export Price Indices for 2005
The Indices for 2005 will be published in the 2006 Annual External Trade Report.
Consumer Price Index
The current Consumer Price Index is based on the Dominica Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) which was conducted from November 1997 to December 1998 and covered all population zones or parishes.
The survey covered 1000 households distributed almost evenly over a twelve-month period. It was also necessary for the survey design to take into account the need to have each census division adequately represented.
Development of the Consumer Price Index
Data on expenditure collected during the conduct of the HIES formed the basis for the development of the Consumer Price Index (C.P.I.). A total of 1000 households were interviewed.
For the development of the C.P.I. all households from which data were collected, except those with zero income, were utilized. This resulted in data from 858 households being used in the development of the C.P.I. In addition, only items or services bought in the country were utilized. Households kept diaries for two weeks on expenditure for Food, Alcoholic Drink, and Tobacco. Expenditure on Accommodation, Fuel and Light, Household Furniture and Furnishings, Transport and Communication, Medical Expenses, Education and Recreation was kept for one year. Where the diary was not completed, an estimate was made for monthly expenditure on food, based on the household size and income.
There were varying reference periods of expenditure for the different sectors. For Clothing and Footwear the period of expenditure was three months while expenditure on Households Operations was for one month. Miscellaneous expenses were also collected in the diary. However in the development of the CPI all expenditure were expressed on a monthly basis after which the average expenditure per households by sector was derived. From these, using a base of 1000, weights were then allocated to each sector. In determining item weights, the weight of each sector was proportionately allocated in the items that make up that sector.
A total number of 374 items are recorded from 102 sources. These sources exclude Rent, which is measured in eight categories from 49 households. The period of price collection for this series is the 08th to 21st of every month. The base is January 2001.
The Consumer Price Index measures eleven groups namely Food, Alcoholic Drink and Tobacco, Clothing and Footwear, Housing and Utilities, Fuel and Light, Medical and Health Expenses, Household and Furniture, Transportation and Communication, Educational Expenses, Personal Care Services, Miscellaneous/Other.
From the 1997/1998 survey, three new sub-groups, Housing Mortgage Interest Payments, Hospital Expenses, and Health Insurance were included in the index. The table below shows the shifting of sub-group to new groups; this explains why certain groups are not strictly comparable, over the two survey periods (1992 and 1998).
Sub Groups Shifts 1992 - 1998
The Consumer Price Index continues to remain the most timely series. The 2005 Annual Report was published and contains information from 1995. Presently, the First and Second Quarter and half yearly and monthly reports up to September 2006 are published.
SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC
The last comprehensive Statistical Digest for
The publication contains thirteen sections as stated hereunder:
Section I : Population and Vital Statistics
Section II : Climate
Section III : Travel and Tourism
Section IV : Prices, Labour and Economic Activity
Section V : Social Conditions/Electorate
Section VI : Transport and Communication
Section VII : Production
Section VIII : Public Finance
Section IX : Banking
Section X : National Accounts and Balance of Payments
Section XI : Trade
Section XII : Infrastructure
Section XIII : Miscellaneous
The statistical digest provides researchers, scholars,
organizations and others interested in economic and social trends in
Travel and Tourism
A new computer program, Management Information System for Tourism (MIST) introduced by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation, replaced the former IMPS Program in June 2001.
The following reports have been published:
Ø Annual Travel Report for 2004 (covering the period 1994 to 2004)
Ø 2005 Monthly (January to December)
There is however, a lag in continuation of regular monthly, quarterly and half yearly series (publications) from 2001 as a result of the earlier cleaning process of the MIST Program and a gap in entries from the data source.
Demographic Statistics No. 4 of 2004 was published by the Central
Statistics Office in June 2005. This
issue presents data from the last century ( in selected tables). It also provides data on vital events (births,
deaths, marriages, divorces), fertility, mortality, migration and household composition. The report intends to assist policy-makers,
planners, administrators, researchers, students and others interested in
demographic trends in
Education Statistics No. 2 was published by the Central Statistical Office in February 197. The Education Planning Unit of Ministry of Education has been publishing Education Indicators Report, the most recent for 2005. However, work is in progress for Education Statistics No. 3 and a preliminary report will be available by December 2006.
The first issue of the Environmental Statistics Report was published in August 2002. Topics covered include Climate, Population, Biodiversity, Energy, Water and Waste, Transport, Tourism. The presentation of the first issue was coordinated by the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD)/Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Project on "Strengthening Capacity in the Compilation of Statistics Indicators for Conference Follow-up in the Caribbean Region."
As part of the project, a staff member of the Central
Statistical Office attended a workshop on Environment Statistics held in
A gender statistics report is prepared and covers data from 1998 to 2003. The Report includes the 2001 Census information. The full content of Gender Statistics is presented in the MDG National Report.
MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDG)
The first national report of the MDG was completed in July 2006. The report represented the joint (CARICOM) Social and Indicators and (UN) Millennium Development Goals on Population and Family, Poverty, Education, Health, Environment, Global Partnership in Development (Economy, Employment/Labor Force), Information and Communication, Decision-Making and Crime. The data mainly covers the period 1991, 1997 and 1998 to 2003.
Definitions and Methodologies (MDG)
Definitions and methodologies are referred to in table footnotes.
Analysis and Recommendation (MDG)
A brief analysis based on selected indicators precedes
each set of indicator. Recommendations are presented based on data trends and
appropriate and relevant targets, since
Localizing the Millennium Development Goals
Following the recommended targets of the MDG and the
measurement of achievements, an additional component is adopted in presenting
indicators that are most relevant in the context of national socio-economic
development - localizing. Localizing the
MDG not only involves the popularization of the Goals at all levels of the
society but the process of adapting the targets to local realities with an
assessment of the data's relevance to the country's situation. In
Population and Family ▪ Fertility Rates and Age Specific Fertility Rates
▪ Population Percentage change and intercensal
▪ Annual Rate of Change
Poverty: ▪ Per Capita Household Expenditure by Quintile
Education: ▪ Number of Government Scholarship by Course
of Study and Sex.
▪ Number of Government Scholarship by Course of Study and Sex.
Health: ▪ Population by Births, Deaths and Net Migration
▪ Mean Population and Vital Rates
▪ Population with Disability by type of disability
Environmental Sustainability: ▪ Households by Type of Tenure (includes
households occupying state or abandoned
The other major stage in the localizing process has been formal launch of the Local Monitoring Framework and the execution of the comprehensive publicity and other activities plan for the year. The plan of activities will be reviewed annually with close linkage to the adoption of recommendations,
Monitoring and Evaluation of Recommendation: (MDG)
The adoption of recommendations and programmes will be continuously monitored and evaluated. Continuous discussions (with policy makers and other stakeholders) on the achievement and the realization of the recommended targets will form an integral part of monitoring and evaluation.
Assessment of Targets (MDG)
The MDG goals and the achievements of targets have been measured with an assessment of each target vis-à-vis national data, the country's socio-economic development programs, and the evaluation of policy decisions. Current Assessment of Goals and targets are presented in the MDG national report.
Data Gaps and Data Quality (MDG)
Currently two temporary officers have been employed to complete data gaps and assist departments in the commencement of completing data gaps in Sections Health/AIDS, Education and Crime.
Activities to accomplish MDG future goals
Type of :
Surveys Period Frequency
Literacy 2007 every two to three years
Survey of Living
Conditions 2007 every two to three years
COMPUTER AND SURVEYS
Occupational Wage Survey
An Occupational Wage Survey, the first for
Survey of Students of Migrant Parents
This survey the first of its kind was conducted in February 2005. The purpose of the survey is to assess the behaviour of students of migrant parents in comparison to students of resident parents. The coverage was students of Grade 3 level of Primary Schools and Forms 3 and 5 of Secondary Schools. Budget constraints have affected the finalization of the Survey.
A labour force survey was conducted from 30th August to 29 September 2005 with
August 21 to 29th as the reference period. The survey gathered information on demographics, employment/unemployment by sex and age-group, employment by occupation and industry, labor force by level of education, type of training, employment status, hours worked, migration etc. Labour Force Surveys are conducted every two years. Budget constraints have affected the finalization of the survey.
1. The 2005 Labour Force Survey results is expected to be processed by December 2006, consequent upon the availability of funds.
2. The Second Occupational Wage Survey will be conducted by April 2007 with January 2007 as the reference period.
3. Analysis of the Survey of Students of Migrant Parents is expected to be completed by December 2006 consequent upon the availability of funds.
SCOT (Strength, Challenges, Opportunities, Threats)
The office have increased skills and knowledge over recent years exposing its staff to continuous capacity -building training.
Although staff movements and turnover have been curtailed over the last three years, there is still further need for capacity building particularly in the form of training in the technical areas of the Department ensuring the smooth flow of operations. The IT officer is currently on study leave increasing the need for continuous training for the replacing officer.
Currently one officer has completed a University Certificate in Public Administration. This will create an added future opportunity for enhancing the administrative flow of operations and to perform on-the-job training in selected areas of statistics specifically in the Social Statistics Unit. One officer is pursuing studies in Economics at the first degree level and another Diploma in Management with the University of the West Indies Continuing Studies Program.
The Central Statistical Office has positioned itself to embrace training opportunities. The following list presents areas of training and level of participation over the period July 2005 to September 2006.
Period Training/Sponsors Level of Participation
1. 12-13/09/05 Compilation of Social/Gender Statistical Officer I/
Statistics, Bahamas Economics Unit
2. 19-30/09/05 Economic Statistics
CARTAC/CARICOM Statistician/Economic Unit
3. 10-14/10/05 Tourism Statistics,
CTO/EU Social Statistics
4. 9-14/11/05 Development of SUT,
IMF/CARTAC Economics Unit
5. 6-17/2/06 Tourism Satellite Accounts Asst. Statistician
6. 24-25/04/06 Trade
OECS Economics Unit
7. 26/06 to Macro
06/07/06 IMF/CARTAC Economics Unit
8. 03/07- Demographic Analysis,
CARICOM/UNECLAC Economics Unit
9. 08-11/08/06 Data Analysis and Statistician/Surveys
OECS MECOVI Project
10. 08-12/08/06 Development of SUT,
Dominica Asst. Statistician
IMF/CARTAC Economics Unit
11. 14-18/08/2006 Tourism Satellite Account, Statistician/
Dominica, CARICOM/EU Asst. Statistician
12. 22-26/05/06 and Updating EUROTRACE for
13. 21-25/08/06 H.S. and VAT,
IMF/CARTAC Statistical Officer II (two officers)
Asst .Statistician/Economic Unit
14. 04-08/09/06 Sampling Methodology Chief Statistician
OECS MECOVI Project Statistician/Social Statistics Statistician/Surveys
Statistical Officer I/Economic Unit
15 18-22/09/06 Dev. Info, 5
Computer Program Chief Statistician
for MDG Dissemination,
Proposed Work Program 2006/2007
Activities Proposed for the National Accounts Series are as follows:
Activities proposed for External Trade
2006: finalization of the 2005 Import and Export Price Indices
2006: computation of the 01st - 02nd Quarter 2006
Import/Export Price Indices
Continuation of price collection for imports
2006: Installation of the new windows version of Eurotrace. (October - December 2006)
2007: The new windows version of Eurotrace as a pilot study, alongside the DOS
SOCIAL STATISTICS UNIT
Activities proposed for Social Statistics
Create a Dev. Info. 5 database for MDG and Social Indicators Dissemination (by December 2006)
Explore the possibilities of reviewing and incorporating Lands and Surveys and Physical Planning Department geographical information systems with Central Statistical Office Dev. Info. 5 program in preparation for the mapping phase of 2010 Round of Census.
Monitor and evaluate MDG Program.
Activities for Surveys Unit
Completion of the Establishment Register for Wage Survey (November 2006)
Completion of a National Farm Register (December 2006)
Completion of website (December 2006)
Outline of Organisation Structure 1
Current Work Program Economics Statistics Unit 2-10
Social and Demographic Unit 11-14
Computer and Surveys Unit 15
Training Opportunities 16-17
Proposed Work Program
for 2006/2007 18-19
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