C A R I B B E A N C O M M U N I T Y S E C R E T A R I A T

THIRTY- FIRST MEETING OF

THE STANDING COMMITTEE OF

CARIBBEAN STATISTICIANS SCCS/2006/31/20

Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

6-8 November 2006 1 November 2006

DOMINICA'S COUNTRY REPORT

CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE

This report summarizes the various achievements, and developments of the Dominica Central Statistical Office from July 2005 to June 2006 and outlines the proposed work programme for the period July 2006 to June 2007.

ORGANISATION

The Central Statistical Office is a division within the Ministry of Finance and Planning and operates under the Census and Statistics Act. No. 17 of 1986.

The Central Statistical Office continues to function with a staff of fifteen persons remaining stable over the last year but recording a reduction of 12 percent in established positions from the 2001/2003 period. This reduction resulted from the imposition of cost-saving measures in government expenditure.

POSTS NUMBER PROPOSED

2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007

No. Est. No. filled Est. No. filled Est. No. filled Est. No. filled

Chief Statistician 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Statistician 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Administrative Cadet 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Administrative Asst. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Statistical Officer I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Statistical Officer II 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Statistical Officer III 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2

Data Entry Clerk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Junior Clerk/Typist 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Office Attendant 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Cleaner (Part-time) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1

(non- established) ------- ------- ------ ----- ----- ---- ------ -----

16 16 16 16 16 16 15 14

Note: No: Number

Est: Establishment

Departmental arrangements have been made for the data entry clerk and Statistical

Officer III functions from the 2003/2004 and 2006/2007 periods (respectively).

The organizational structure includes four units as follows:

(1) - Economic Statistics

(2) - Social and Demographic Statistics

(3) - Computing and Surveys

(4) - Administrative and General Services

An organizational chart is shown at Appendix I

Economics Statistics

National Accounts and Balance of Payments

The National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics are compiled annually on the basis of establishment's surveys and supplemented with administrative data from the divisions of Treasury, Ministry of Finance and Planning, Inland Revenue and the National Development Corporation (NDC). Data compiled in the National Accounts refers to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) classified by economic activity (current and constant prices) and GDP by expenditure (current prices). The GDP estimates for 2004 have been finalized while preliminary estimates for 2005 and projections for 2006 have been made. An overview of the economy for the year 2005 was prepared.

An exercise for the rebasing of National Accounts has commenced, with the year 2000 chosen as the base year in order to facilitate comparison among the CARICOM countries.

Efforts are being made to expand the National Accounts Statistics in developing the Supply and Use tables. Presently, the products and industries have been chose, while a comprehensive business register was developed primarily to establish a framework for sampling. Additionally, the ground work is being done in order to begin the compilation of the Tourism Satellite Accounts. In August, 2006, a workshop was conducted with a view to develop a tourism satellite account. During this workshop the statistical data available was analyzed and the strengths, weaknesses and data gaps were closely examined.

Presently, the Balance of Payments for 2005 has been finalized while projections for 2006 have been made.

Report on Supply and Use Tables Technical Assistance

The consultancy and technical assistance for the Supply and Use Tables (SUT) for Dominica were in two stages. The first mission which took place in 2004, was primarily to review the National Accounts System, business register and other available data. The second mission commenced on November 14^th 2005 and concluded on November 16, 2005, with the expectation that at least one other mission would be required to complete the SUT.

During the mission the following activities were performed:

A thorough explanation/training on methodology and instruments used on the system of classification, extrapolation, imputation and expansion, analytical framework and the Bayesian and estimation approach.

Development of a comprehensive business register which has been classified according to Institutional Sector and ISIC 3.0.

Preliminary data checks were performed such as:-

Cross classification of establishments by Institutional Sector and Industry
Data available by institutional sector and industry
Correspondence between ISIC ad CPC

§ Elimination of conceptual mistakes

§ Simplification of the organization of data. Originally, the data were organized by year which resulted in a number of disadvantages. However, the data was organized by 17 industries each of which contain data for all years.

§ The population census 2001 data was cross tabulated between employment by industry and type of employment

§ Data on crops produced in Dominica were classified according to CPC 1.0

· The business register was classified according to ISIC and in terms of the product that is being produced by that industry

§ Foreign trade statistics were converted from HS8 digit format to HS96 format to CPC 1.0 format.

§ The classification of the CPI survey in terms of CPC 1.0 commenced during the mission.

§ Transport equipment and other equipment from the import data of 2001 (for capital formation) were classified according to CPC 1.0.

The technical assistance received so far for the development of the Supply and Use table has been a learning experience for the Central Statistical Office staff. Confidence in the development of the System of National Accounts and SUT have increased significantly and a greater understanding of the process involved in the SUT have been obtained.

Additionally, a more comprehensive Business Register which will provide a better base for sampling has been developed. To complete the SUT, at least one additional mission is required in order to develop the frameworks and applications of the Bayesian estimation approach using the software program.

Following the mission, the Central Statistical Office will be able to produce the SUT, since a thorough explanation of the process and a step-by-step demonstration of each phase have been executed.

Work in Progress

Review ISIC 3.0 - CPC 1.0 correspondence
Solving inconsistencies between supply and use
Solving inconsistencies between use categories and the BEC
Finalizing the classification work in the business register
Reviewing of standardized worksheets for transaction codes, formulas
Finalizing the assignment of ID's to remaining establishments
Collecting final data for missing worksheets data (largely employment and capital formation)

Tourism Satellite Account (TSA)

Following a workshop conducted by the CARICOM in St. Lucia, February 2006, Dominica continued to benefit from technical assistance co-sponsored by the Governments of Spain and Japan in the development of Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). A Tourism Satellite Account Workshop was held from August 14-18, 2006 in Dominica.

Tourism Satellite Account is an organized system of economic statistics on tourism with detailed description of tourism consumption and more generally tourism demand and their relationship with supply by tourism and other related activities.

Dr. Philomen Harrison, Caricom Statistics Program Manager coordinated workshop activities. A Consultant from the Spanish firm ARALDI, conducted sessions, closely examining the various tourism statistical systems and surveys in order to provide assistance and recommendation for accurate, harmonized, consistent and reliable data.

Participants came from Caricom, Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Tourism, National Development Corporation, Dominica Police Force - Immigration Department and Dominica Hotel Association. With the current focus on the development and expansion of the Tourism Sector, the TSA will greatly facilitate comprehensive, detailed analysis for policy decision since it provides detailed information on tourism consumption, and demand.

Follow-up meetings to address current data, scrutinize existing tourism data systems and ensure reliability and accuracy in data output have been held as follows: on the 27^th September 2006 with officials from the National Development Corporation (NDC). The main tasks to be undertaken were the revision of the new Exit/Departure (ED) card and the review of the Visitor Expenditure and Motivation Survey; officials from the Central Statistical Office and the National Development Corporation met with tourism industry vendors on the 11^th October 2006. The main purpose of the meeting was to sensitize vendors on the data required for the TSA and to solicit their cooperation in providing the data. A meeting with officials from the Ministry of Legal Affairs is scheduled for October 17 2006. The main purpose is to discuss the revised E/D Card.

Government Finance

Government data for the fiscal year 2004/2005 has been converted into calendar year, analyzed and classified into the functions of Government (COFOG).

Agricultural Production

The Statistical Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture provided data on crop production for the year 2004, 2005 and preliminary estimates for 2006.

Quarterly Economic Indicators

The publishing of these quarterly indicators provides a general picture of the state of Dominica's economy for the period under review. Key indicators such as manufacturing sales, banana and other agricultural production, exports, imports and price levels among others are prepared and published. Since 1989, this report has been furnished and is now well recognized by the public and private sectors. Consequently, the demand for the quarterly reports has been greatly increased.

At the end of 2005, a comprehensive report was presented on the state of the economy utilizing most of the data compiled during the year and published in the quarterly reports.

This annual review provided the government and the general public with much needed information on the overall economic situation in the country. Economic indicators for the first two quarters of 2006 have been prepared and published, while work has been complted on the third quarter indicators.

International Trade Statistics

Trade data processing continues to be an important function of the Central Statistical Office. Five persons are currently working full-time in this area. Processing of the 2005 trade data has been finalized and reports published. In addition, the following activities have been accomplished in respect of 2005 and 2006.

2005: Processing of 2005 External Trade Index Numbers

- Annual Report on External Trade (summary tables) for 2005 was published.

2006 - Identifying errors, inconsistencies and computer editing of exports for January

to September

- ASYCUDA transfers and data entry of imports for January - August 2006 are

completed.

- Identifying errors, inconsistencies and computer editing of imports for

January to July 2006.

Presently, the Central Statistical Office is using the 1993 version of EUROTRACE which is running on Windows 95. The office obtained a new windows version of EUROTRACE from EUROSTAT in 2004.

Current Status Report on New Version of EUROTRACE

In May 2006 the Central Statistical Office configured the Eurotrace database in order to facilitate the 2002 HS Tariff and Valued Added Tax (VAT) . Presently data up to September 2006 is processed using the 2002 HS codes.

Price Statistics Project - Developing Trade Index for Dominica

At the request of the Dominica Central Statistical Office (CSO), for technical assistance in constructing Trade Index Numbers a two member IMF/CARTAC team visited the Central Statistical Office during the week of December 13 - 17, 2004 to develop export and import price indices for goods and major services (XMPIS). An Interim Report on the mission was prepared by John Sundgren. A follow-up visit was conducted from May 9-13, 2005. The following presents part of the progress report of that mission.

"During the December 2004 mission to Dominica, we started the work by selecting from foreign trade statistics the samples of a) export and import commodities and services b) the enterprises and agencies involved in export and import activities. We also assigned preliminary weights to them based on January - October 2004 trade values. Finally, we prepared the forms needed for the recruitment of the enterprises chosen for price reporting and discussed price collection techniques. In January 2005, the Central Statistical Office staff began interviewing the enterprises in order to identify the elementary items (varieties/transactions) to be priced, determine the terms of transactions and obtain price data started in April 2005. For services, we selected a sample that included major hotels, excursion agencies catering to cruise-ship visitors and the medical school for foreign students.

The task of this second mission to Roseau was to review the monthly price data collected so far from the enterprises and service establishments, assess whether sufficient coverage had been obtained, show the staffs how to detect ad correct errors in the data and assist in developing a spreadsheet program to calculate the XMPIs. However, before calculating the indices, we had to adjust the preliminary weights assigned to the items and enterprises to reflect data for the whole year of 2004. Also the latest available 2004 BOP data, if available, were to be used to establish the overall weighting structure for the indices. Finally, we were to develop a plan for the publication of the indices.

Outcome of the Mission

As a result of the excellent cooperation and dedication of the Central Statistical Office, most of the above tasks were accomplished during the short visit. Acceptable 2004 price and weight data are now available for most establishments included in the sample. An Excel-program has been developed to calculate the indices and produce tables fit for publication.

However, due to the scarcity of field visits resources at the Central Statistical Office and the reluctance of a few major importers to provide the price data needed, the sample coverage for imports appear to be insufficient. An attempt was made to extract the missing data from customs records, but because of the paucity of imports it turned out to be very difficult to find the monthly price data needed from this source. Also, some importers with a wide variety of imports experience difficulties in selecting the items and varieties to be priced. However, here we were able to limit the sample to a few representative varieties through repeat visits or by selecting the sample of varieties used in the CPI".

Progress Report on the Computation of Import/Export Indices

Following the conclusion of the mission the continued tasks were as follows:

§ Obtain missing price and weighted data for the year 2004 and the first two quarters of 2005.

§ Obtain an estimate of the percent distribution of exports and imports among the selected items, during the July round of visits.

§ The spreadsheet developed for the calculation of the imports price index should be finalized.

§ By October 2005, all price indices should be ready for publication, including a summary table for exports and imports prices by major S.I.T.C. and BEC groups.

§ Review a copy of the spreadsheet tabulation well in advance of the publication of the indices.

All the above tasks along with the export indices for 2005 were completed and the final spreadsheet containing the computations forwarded for a thorough review and feed back. Following review, the spreadsheet with the datasets and computation were finalized, and indices presented as follows:

Table 1

Quarterly Import Price Indices for 2005

S.I.T.C. Sections	2004 Base Year = 100	01^st Quarter	02^nd Quarter	03^rd Quarter	04^th Quarter	2005 Total
	100.00
0	100.00	99.07	106.95	110.09	109.54	106.41
1	100.00	97.76	99.30	101.89	98.07	99.26
2	100.00	88.21	74.25	80.98	80.26	80.93
3	100.00	100.56	108.10	124.57	143.63	119.22
4	100.00	99.04	99.82	97.97