CARIBBEAN                        COMMUNITY                         SECRETARIAT

            TWENTY-EIGHTH MEETING OF THE                               RESTRICTED

            STANDING COMMITTEE OF

CARIBBEAN STATISTICIANS                                            SCCS/2003/28/6

            Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands                    

            3-5 November 2003                                                               27 October 2003

AN INVENTORY OF STATISTICS IN THE REGION:

IMPLICATIONS FOR HARMONISATION

1.                              Introduction and Background

1.                              In recent years, the Statistics Sub-Programme of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat has placed emphasis on the harmonisation of statistics in the Region as one of the main objectives of the Standing Committee of Caribbean Statisticians (SCCS).  In this regard, the focus has been on two main areas - (i) encouraging Member States to document and submit their methodologies to the Secretariat website; and (ii) the determination of a core set of statistics to be produced by all Member States.  In moving towards the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME), the objective of the regional statistical programme will be similar to that performed by Eurostat for the European Union, mainly to play an active role in capacity- building to ensure the availability of harmonized and reliable statistics.  Capacity- building is required in both Social and Economic Statistics as well as the initiation of foundation work in Environment, Statistics and Information Communication Technology.

2.                              Even though it can be argued that some social statistics and indicators are produced by a few Member States, in particular the more developed countries, the reality is that this important area of statistics has not been given the level of attention or investment it so urgently requires.  The need to strengthen capacity to produce social statistics and indicators on a continuous basis, as a means of directing and assessing social policies, cannot be overemphasised.  Urgent demands are currently being made on Member States to quickly develop comprehensive databases which are user-friendly and very up-to-date, in order to guide socio-economic policy decisions.  The future could be disastrous if Member States do not respond urgently.

3.                              The CARICOM Programme to strengthen capacity to collect, compile, analyse and disseminate Social/Gender and Environment Statistics and Indicators is attempting to accelerate the process to establish appropriate data bases at the national and regional levels.  A first step in this direction was to conduct an inventory of available social/gender indicators in the Region.

4.                              In the area of economic statistics, while it has been the case that greater emphasis has been placed on this area of statistics, closer examination shows data gaps or the complete absence of some data series across Member States. The Secretariat conducted an inventory of statistics available at the Secretariat in 2001, based on the data submitted in this area of statistics.  A more detailed country assessment was also performed in the area of National Accounts by sending out questionnaires to Member States.  The Secretariat has also been attempting to devise ways of defining a core set of economic statistics and encouraging Member States to document their methodologies which would not only provide base information to enable harmonisation but can also fulfill the requirements of the GDDS.  This paper discusses the findings and recommendations of these inventories, and considers the implications for the harmonisation of statistics.      

2.         An Inventory of Social Statistics and Indicators

2.1                                     The Inventory Questionnaire

5.      All Member States were requested to complete and return a simple questionnaire which asked five basic questions, namely: (i) whether the Member State currently produces the indicator; (ii) how regularly it is being produced; (iii) the latest year available; (iv) the sources of the data; and, if the indicator is not currently being produced, (v) reasons for this.  Of the fifteen (15) Member States, thirteen (13) completed and returned the inventory forms. Of the five Associate Members, only Bermuda returned their completed form, even though there were indications from the British Virgin Islands that the core indicators are available. 

2.2                                     Main Findings

6.      Some of the major results of the inventory of social statistics and indicators are highlighted as follows:

Population Statistics and Indicators

(i)                             Availability of indicators - All countries reported the availability of most of the Population indicators.  Suriname reported not having population data by the conventional age groups, population breakdown by urban and rural areas or Projected Population by age group.  Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines also do not have projected population by the conventional age groups.

(ii)                           Frequency - Most countries reported having the production of population data on an annual basis.  In the case of The Bahamas however, even though they indicated annual production of population projections by age groups, they reported having the total population by age groups etc. only from the decennial censuses.  Belize also produces population projections based on the census every ten years. Suriname produces the total population every year, but gets the breakdown by age only after a census.

(iii)                         Year of data availability - most countries reported that the latest year available was 2000.  However, some countries like Belize had population by age groups for 2002 and others like Antigua & Barbuda had population data up to the year 2001.

(iv)                          Source of data- the Census is the main source of population data in all countries.

(v)                        Indicators not currently produced - Barbados reported that the main reason for this is “insufficiently trained staff” and the “lack of financial resources”. St. Vincent and the Grenadines cited “inadequate staff” as their main reason.

Families and Households

(i)                             Availability of indicators - under “Families and Households”- only three countries reported producing the indicator “Contraceptive use by union status….”. For two other indicators i.e.  "Average age at first child" and "Household Consumption", eight and nine countries respectively, reported currently producing these.  However, with minor exceptions, all countries reported producing the other indicators in this section.

(ii)                       Frequency of production - most countries are not producing these indicators annually.  Several countries rely on  the census i.e. every ten  years or other ad hoc surveys during censuses.

(iii)                         Year of data availability - Most countries therefore reported having data for 2000 or 2001 when the census was conducted.  Surprisingly, Jamaica, like St. Kitts and Nevis and St. Vincent and the Grenadines reported 1991 as the latest year for these indicators.  The source of the data in most of the countries was their last census or ad hoc survey.

Work

(i)                 Availability of indicators - Even though all Member States currently produce most of the indicators related to “Work”, only Saint Lucia reported producing all fifteen.  For most other countries, gaps exist mainly with respect to the production of the two following indicators: (i) Farm holders by size of holding; and (ii) Subsistence farm holders.  Suriname has the most data gaps in this area, and this has limited her capacity to the production of only seven of the fifteen indicators here.

(ii)               Frequency - Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago all produce quarterly “Work” indicators, and are very up-to-date with all quarters of 2002 reported. Belize, The Bahamas and Saint Lucia produce annual “Work” indicators.

(iii)             Year of data availability - the indicators on work are fairly current with 2002 and 2001 indicators for The Bahamas and Saint Lucia, respectively, even though, in the case of Belize, the official approval for the release of the 2002 statistics has not yet been given.

Economy

(i)                             Availability of indicators -There are six indicators in the area of the “Economy”. No country is currently producing all six. Five countries produce four of the six  and seven other countries produce only two of the six indicators i.e. “the Economic Growth Rate” and “GDP per capita”.

(ii)                           Frequency - for the indicators produced in this section, most are produced annually. Barbados is the only country which reported producing GDP Growth Rate and Per Capita Income on a quarterly basis.  Most countries are very current with these indicators as well, with estimates for 2001, and in some cases, 2002 already available.

Education

(i)                             Availability of indicators - Eighteen “Education” indicators form part of the core set of Social/Gender indicators in the CARICOM Programme.  Saint Lucia was the only Member State to report currently producing all of these indicators.  Belize reported producing seventeen and Dominica, sixteen.  Surprisingly, only four Member States - Belize, Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Suriname - reported producing “Literacy Rates”, even though, from the feedback received at the SIMDG Meetings,  all Member States regard their official literacy rate to be in the high nineties.

(ii)                           Frequency - Of the education indicators produced by Member States, most are done on an annual basis and obtained from administrative records.

(iii)                         Year of data availability -The latest year available for most countries is 2001.  However, Belize reported having education indicators for 2002.

(iv)                          Suriname and The Bahamas are the only two Member States to produce only six and seven, respectively, of the total of eighteen education indicators.

Health

(i)                             Availability of indicators -There are thirty-one Health indicators in the core set and currently, no Member State produces all.  Both Belize and Saint Lucia currently produce thirty of these indicators and Antigua and Barbuda produce twenty-eight.  Surprisingly, from the inventory reports, Barbados currently produces only four of these indicators, Suriname, six, Trinidad and Tobago, eight and Grenada nine.

(ii)                           Frequency - Most of the indicators that are produced, are done on an annual basis, but a few like “Knowledge of HIV/AIDS by age and education” or “Source of Knowledge” are available only when specialised surveys are done. These are usually done every five  years.  Pleasantly surprising is the case of Antigua and Barbuda which reported producing most of the required indicators on an annual basis.  This country's indicators on HIV/AIDS are also reported to be very up-to-date since they are produced quarterly.

(iii)                         Year of data availability - Belize has quite a few Health indicators available for the year 2002 whereas Saint Lucia’s latest year was 2001.

Crime

(i)                             Availability of indicators - Of the twelve Member States which completed and returned the inventory questionnaire, Belize and Saint Lucia currently produce all ten core indicators on “Crime”, whereas The Bahamas reported that they do not produce any of the indicators at all.  Five other countries, namely Dominica, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago all reported that they are currently producing fewer than five of the core indicators on “Crime”.

(ii)        Frequency - All indicators on "Crime" which are produced are done so on an annual basis and the latest year's data available is 2001 in most cases.

Decision-making

7.         The respect to the indicators on “Decision Making”, Dominica and Saint Lucia are the only two Member States currently producing all six core indicators in this sector. However, both Belize and St. Kitts and Nevis produce five of these indicators and The Bahamas and St. Vincent and the Grenadines produce four. Surprisingly, Jamaica is among the weakest countries here, together with Antigua and Barbuda and Suriname, all producing only three of the indicators in this section.

Poverty

8.                  Availability of indicators - There are five indicators of poverty among the core set of regional indicators recommended.  Only Belize has produced all five and this was as far back as 1995, when their first Poverty survey was conducted.  Belize will be in a position to produce updated indicators on Poverty from the recent poverty assessment that was done in Belize in 2002.  The Bahamas has reported in this inventory that they produced four of the five indicators for the year 2002.  Apart from these two Member States, only five others are producing indicators of poverty and only two others of the core set of recommended regional indicators.

3.         Internal inventory of Economic Statistics

9.                  The inventory in the area of Economic Statistics was internally executed based on information submitted to the Secretariat by Member States.  This inventory was presented to the Twenty-Sixth Meeting of the SCCS which took place in 2001.  Member States were asked to review this inventory relative to the accuracy of the information on data production.  A further internal review of the inventory in this area was conducted recently and the results are given in Attachment I to this Paper.  A more detailed assessment in the area of National Accounts was also conducted with a questionnaire being sent to Member States in January 2003.  In this section, we discuss briefly the status of Economic Statistics in the Region. No checks were performed on the data for Haiti, but the Secretariat is gradually taking steps to assess the needs of this Member State to enable the submission of detailed trade data to input in our regional trade database system as a critical activity.

National Accounts

(i)                             Availability - All Member States produce GDP at current and constant prices.  The data for The Bahamas is not up-to-date relative to the official release of information for the years beyond 1995.  GDP by expenditure components is also produced by most Member States, but the internal checks on our database only provided information on current prices for these components.

(ii)                           Beyond these national accounts tables, the table on national disposable income and its uses are produced by more than half of the fourteen Member States, there is almost a complete absence of the more analytical tables of the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA) which is cause for serious concern.

(iii)                         Availability of GDP has approximately a 2-year lag.  Member States are encouraged to submit preliminary estimates for inclusion in our databases.  The additional problem is that the data for a particular year is available at different months across Member States which pose serious problems for compilation of a regional database and for the harmonisation of these statistics.

Production, Consumer Price Indices and Index of Wages/Earnings

(i)                             Price indices, in particular, the consumer/retail price indices were available for all fourteen Member States.  However, there is a reversal in the case of production indices  which was largely unavailable for most Member States.  Index of wages/earnings were also missing for all but two Member States - Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago.

Fiscal sector

           Availability - Generally this data set was available for most Member States but the databases at the Secretariat were not updated.

Financial Sector

           Data on these variables such as money supply, assets and liabilities and interest rate were available and timely.  These data are generally produced by the Central Banks.

External Sector

(i)                             Availability - Balance of payments statistics available and fairly up-to-date.  Again, the formulation of a regional database suffers from the problem of varying timing in the availability of this information across Member States.

(ii)                           While general information is available on Foreign Direct Investment Flows, more detailed formation by source, type and industry are not readily available.  It is not easy to identify how much of these flows are intra-regional to monitor changes due to the establishment of the CSME, particularly as a consequence of the Free Movement of Capital.

(iii)                         External debt data are generally available as indicated in the table as Attachment II to this Paper;

(iv)                          Merchandise trade statistics generally available.  Antigua and Barbuda has a gap in the late 80s to 1998, for which a project has been designed by the Secretariat to rectify. Guyana has been making commendable efforts with its trade and while final figures for the most recent years are not yet available, estimates have been submitted to the Secretariat. There is a problem with the trade data for Suriname, since there is a large unallocated amount in the detailed trade due to the confidentiality provisions.  It is not possible to incorporate this country’s data in the regional database.

Travel and Tourism

           The status shows that the data are generally available even though in the case of passenger arrivals and departure by type and mode, there is a lack of timeliness. The inventory as Attachment III to this Paper also provides information on socio-demographic information which was previously discussed.

4.         Recommendations

Social Statistics

(i)                             The main findings above indicate that the weakest areas in the case of Social Statistics are as follows: crime, poverty, health, education and economy.  Hence, capacity building should be focused on these areas.

(ii)                           Weaknesses are also gleaned from the inventory in some areas related to some of the other sectors but these could be dealt with directly.

(iii)                         The findings also show that some of the weaker countries which are not producing most of the core set of indicators are: Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Kitts and Nevis and Suriname.  It is noted that Antigua and Barbuda, for example, reported producing seventy-six of the one hundred and eight indicators and as a consequence, is not listed as one of the weaker countries.

(iv)                          The process of harmonisation of concepts, definitions, methodologies, etc. for the Region should commence as early as possible.

(v)                            Collaboration and cooperation should be strengthened with traditional partners and established with new partners as necessary.  It is crucial to involve the international agencies in our endeavours. This will avert duplication and waste of scarce financial resources.

(vi)                          Regional workshops on crime, health and education statistics and indicators should be considered as priority areas during the term of the programme.

(vii)                        Continued efforts at capacity building in the conduct of Poverty Assessment surveys or Standard of Living Surveys are essential. The implementation of SPARC should be monitored carefully to ensure the bridging of this gap.

(viii)                       The need for Census data is now more urgent.  Further, direct technical assistance, especially to the weaker Member States identified above will be very effective in the analysis of the 2000 Round of Census data for other purposes, as well as to facilitate the generation of some of the core programme indicators.

(ix)                          It is noted from the inventory that only four Member States reported producing a “Literacy Rate”, yet all claim to have high rates of literacy.  The availability of the actual rates is needed to support these claims. This gap should be closed, as early as possible because of the importance of this indicator.

(x)                            Some of the indicators can only be generated from surveys.  These are often done on an ad hoc basis.  Efforts can be made to support the conduct of annual Labour Force Surveys in Member States which do not currently have this capacity.  "Piggy-backing" on this, specific modules can be added from time to time to gather data required for other indicators.  This strategy can realize considerable savings to Member States.

(xi)                          Despite the above, some level of funding will have to be mobilised for some of the more specialised surveys.  This is another reason why a good relationship with the international partners is extremely useful.

Economic Statistics

(i)                             Despite the emphasis in this area of statistics, it is obvious that there is still a great deal of work required to produce these statistics in a timely and reliable manner.

(ii)                           Evidently much attention should be placed in the area of National Accounts.  While CARTAC is assisting in this area, there are limits as to how much CARTAC can do at a particular point in time relative to the quantum of work to be done. Evidently consideration should be given to contracting international including regional Consultants to provide technical assistance to Member States.

(iii)                         Generally, it would appear that the data emanating from the Central Banks tend to be less problematic with the possible exceptions of Guyana and Suriname and some problems experienced with the external debt data for Barbados which is still listed as provisional in our database for the period 1997-2001.

(iv)                          There has been some improvement in the area of Merchandise Trade over the last two to three years but there is still need to monitor the situation for at least three Member States and in general to focus on increasing the timeliness and reliability of this information.  As an example, recent work on intra-regional trade showed some anomalies in the data which can be the subject of rich research to improve the data quality or to at least explain the differences.

5.         Some Implications for Harmonisation

10.             The need for a harmonised system of statistics cannot be overemphasized.  Among other benefits, harmonisation is crucial for any sensible comparisons to be made.  As Member States of CARICOM move towards the CSME, it will be necessary to adopt common approaches, methodologies and policies as far as possible, and a harmonised set of statistics will play a very crucial role in monitoring and assessing these approaches and methodologies and for assessing the impact of the various policies, movement of capital, services, rights of establishments and free movement of persons.

11.             The inventory in Social Statistics provided us with some metadata from the various Member States which have been compiled, and analysis of them has commenced.  This will be supplemented by metadata, which already existed at the headquarters, as well as the completed formats on which, by October 2003, Member States will report their core indicators to the Secretariat. Harmonisation of the metadata will also be significantly enhanced by recommendations coming out of the recently conducted workshop on harmonisation held in Grenada in August this year.

12.             The Statistics Section of the CARICOM Secretariat, in focusing on the core indicators of the CARICOM Social/Gender Programme, has now commenced the process of compiling all the already standardised metadata for Member States of the Region, and to document the differences which exist. These concepts, definitions and methodologies will form part of the regional website for social statistics of the CARICOM Secretariat Statistics Section.

13.             In terms of the actual social indicators themselves, from the outset when the indicators were being identified, a harmonised set of core indicators was the major driving force, determining whether the indicators would form part of the core set or not.  In this sense, therefore, it can be argued that the current core indicators in the programme are relevant and will be very useful to all Member States of the Region, as well as to other users. Of course, individual Member States will continue to produce other indicators, which may be of particular significance to them individually, and as such cannot form a part of the core set.  As time progresses, more common core indicators will be added and the area of environment statistics is soon to be tackled.  

14.             The internal inventory in economic statistics and the country assessment in national accounts signal the need for capacity building and commitment by NSOs to enable the production of timely economic data.  Greater creativity is required with respect to the management of available resources. Timeliness, documentation of methodologies, enforcing of a core set of economic statistics and devising methods to produce harmonised statistics are essential to any strategy to be devised.

15.             In the short-term these harmonised statistics may differ from the data produced at the national level, but it is anticipated that some convergence may occur in the future between the national and the harmonised data.   The significance of the inventories is that they provide the analytical foundation and source data upon which the methodologies for producing harmonised statistics critically depend.   Fundamentally, some space should be granted to undertake research to produce these harmonised statistics after careful study and review of the methodologies. 

16.             Looking towards the future it is envisaged that funding under the Ninth European Development Fund can pave the way towards the improvement of economic statistics in Member States and at the regional level along with the technical assistance contribution of CARTAC. Collaboration of all organisations involved in developmental work in the Region is critical to effect speedy achievement of this goal.  Developmental work in Social Statistics will  also have to be sustained over a longer period, since this is an area that was neglected in the past.

17.             The CARICOM Programme in Social/ Gender and Environment Statistics has received financial support from the UNDP, the UNSD and The World Bank and efforts will be made in future to attract a larger project for sustained improvement.  Another critical factor is the development of a Work Programme  and a Work Plan for improvement of economic statistics for the Region by the SCCS which is an agenda item prepared by the CARICOM Secretariat for consideration at the Twenty-Eighth Meeting of the SCCS: Preparing for the future:  The development of a statistical programme for the Region – focus on economic statistics.

*****

                                                                                                                                                                                                            ANNEX   I               

TABLE 1  INVENTORY OF STATISTICS IN THE REGION

TABLE 1   INVENTORY OF STATISTICS IN THE REGION (Continued)

Note:         x  Refers to  available data

                 √   Refers to data available up to 2001

¹   GDP data for Bahamas available up to 1995. Problem with the release of the data.

²   GDP data for Suriname available up to 2000

³   Trinidad has GDP by sector in current prices up to 2001 and but in constant prices up to 2000.

⁴   National Accounts aggregates given up 1999

⁵   Labour data for Antigua and Barbuda only available for 1991

⁶   Labour data for Montserrat and St. Vincent & the Grenadines only available for 1980 and 1991

⁷   Labour data for Guyana only available for 1980, 1991, 1992.

⁸   Labour data for Grenada only available for 1981, 1991, 1994, 1996, and 1998.

⁹   Labour data for St.Kitts & Nevis only available for 1981, 1991, 1997.

¹⁰ Labour data for Dominica only available for 1981, 1991, 1997.

¹¹ Bahamas missing 2000 data for Employment by age and gender.

¹² Barbados, Belize and Jamaica have different reporting years that do not coincide with the calendar year.

¹³ Summary of assets is not available for Belize.

¹⁴ Direct Foreign Investment given by time is broken down into debit and credit.

¹⁵ Direct Foreign Investment for the OECS countries only given for 1995, 1997-1998

¹⁶ Direct Foreign Investment by country for the OECS countries is reported as Nationality and only include equity     and other.

¹⁷ Balance of payment data for Guyana available at the Analysis summary level

¹⁸ Balance of payment data for Suriname available in a different format than that of the rest of the countries.

¹⁹ Antigua and Barbuda has detailed trade data only for 1999.Problem with the processing of the data for other     years. However, Summary data available for years prior to 1999.

²⁰  Trade only available at summary level for 2001.

²¹  Trade Data for Suriname is not available at the detailed level as there are restrictions prohibiting the release of     some sections at the detailed level.

²²   Population by ethnicity and area are only available in census years.

²³   No data given by cause

²⁴  Death by cause is not given up to 2001

²⁵   Poverty data is very scant overall for the CARICOM countries.