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| CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY SECRETARIAT TWENTY-EIGHTH MEETING
OF THE RESTRICTED STANDING COMMITTEE OF CARIBBEAN
STATISTICIANS SCCS/2003/28/14 Providenciales, Turks
and Caicos Islands 3-5 November 2003 1
November 2003
PREPARING
FOR THE FUTURE: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRAFT
STATISTICAL PROGRAMME FOR THE REGION 1. Introduction For
several years the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat has attempted to
provide a range of statistical information and services for users and to facilitate
and guide the development and harmonisation of statistics in the Region. These
efforts were in pursuant of its function of servicing the integration movement.
In compiling this information there has always been heavy reliance on the
statistical offices and other agencies in Member States and it has become
customary over the years for the National Statistical Offices and Central Banks
to submit data to the Secretariat, which would then compile regional databases
to inform policy and the decision-makers process. 2. In
moving from an era of structural adjustment to that of rapid liberalisation and
globalisation together with
the continuous changing information communication technology environment, concerns
of the CARICOM Secretariat are the establishment of the CARICOM Single Market
and Economy (CSME) and the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ), geared to position
the Community to strengthen the skills of its people; to improve its competitiveness;
to enable greater access of resources to nationals in all Member States, and to
create better employment and investment opportunities. The important role that statistics can and
must play becomes apparent since increased surveillance and intelligence are required
to ensure that timely, reliable and harmonised statistics are available for
direct input into the decision-making system to enable proactive and informed
decisions and policies by governments, the private sector, individuals and
regional institutions. Further, the
availability of harmonised statistics will provide an objective basis for the
resolution of disputes among Member States 3. In
preparing for the future, the need to better organise our statistics becomes apparent,
if we are to deliver the information required for policy-making and for the successful
implementation of the CSME. Therefore,
it is essential that we focus on establishing a framework through formulating a
regional statistical programme. This
common regional statistical programme should be the minimum programme to be followed,
that is, there will be core areas of work that should be followed by all Member
States if we are to be successful in having harmonised, relevant and high
quality statistics for policy-making.
While there will be national priorities that would influence the work programmes
of the national statistical systems, it is hoped that there would be sufficient
convergence of these priorities such that the tension to produce the minimum regional
statistical programme will be lessened.
Beyond these core areas, the National Statistical Systems can pursue
additional areas of statistics required at the national level. 4. Leading up to this recommendation of
having a minimum regional statistical programme, has been the recognition and
experience of the increasing demand and need for statistical information. Therefore, in recent years the Secretariat
has in effect set the foundation for the development of such a regional programme
by focusing attention on ensuring comparability of statistics and reliability
of the statistics produced in the Region through the following developmental
activities: (i)
encouraging
the documentation and dissemination of methodologies by Member States; (ii)
identifying
a core set of statistics of the social, economic, environmental and information
communication sectors and the linkages between these data sets; (iii)
promoting
and adopting of international standards, methodologies and classifications; (iv)
facilitating the spread of best
methodological practices across Member States through the organisation of
workshops and enabling technical assistance and exchange visits,
attachments and study tours; (v)
strengthening
of existing areas of statistics; (vi)
exploring
the compilation of new areas of statistics; (vii)
establishment
of regional advisory groups and
facilitating the establishment of national statistical coordinating committees; (viii)
using the
Internet to facilitate methodology exchange and to provide statistical information
to our users; (ix)
giving
priority to the compilation of the MDG indicators by way of inclusion in the
CARICOM Social Statistics Programme. 5. Very
often these approaches required cooperation with national statistics offices
and other national agencies, central banks and regional and international
institutions. Internally, the Statistics Sub-programme has been attempting to
improve its coordination of its activities, update its data compilation and
dissemination procedures, such as the streamlining of its trade information
system and obtain increased exposure and training for its staff. Despite all of
the above, additional efforts are required for sustained and rapid improvement
of statistics in the Region. While it
is recognised that investment in statistics is critically needed to strengthen
and build capacity due to numerous problems and issues faced by National Statistical Offices and the National Statistical
Systems in general, at the same time it is necessary to forge ahead in
preparing the regional and national statistical system to undertake the crucial
task of effectively guiding economic and social development and increasing the
competitiveness of the economies of the Region. 6. This
Paper therefore, looks towards the future to explore what is required of our
statistical systems, given the need to hasten the process of positioning our
macro-policy framework to treat with the global and regional economic, social
and environmental challenges which necessitate rapid response in providing statistical
information for policies and action. 7. The
Paper, therefore, focusses on exploring elements of a Work Programme that can
lead to the provisioning of the data needs for decisions for national and regional development, a
work plan for the improvement of statistics in the Region, which will
include an assessment of the deficiencies in the national statistical systems
that can be identified and an approach to filling these deficiencies. 2.
THE REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL
CONTEXTUAL ISSUES
8. The
minimum work programme must focus on the policy relevance of statistics and
depict and profile the lives of the people of our Region. Data needed for policy and research should
be available when required and in general there should be commitment to
evidence-based policy. As indicated
earlier, among the main policy issues that must be informed by timely and
accurate statistics are the responses to the challenges of globalisation and
trade liberalisation and the rapid development of information technology. Manifestations of these processes include: the erosion of national borders, the fusion
of markets and the expansion of the arena of competition; the stimulation of
free movement of persons, capital and the rights of establishments; the
increasing phenomena of trade in services that are delivered in a number of
ways across borders; and the pervasiveness of the Internet and communication
which has further boosted the phenomenon of globalisation and the changes that
are occurring in the health, culture and lifestyles of the population. 9. Worldwide,
the response to globalisation has been the formation of hemispheric and
regional economic integration or trading blocs. In the case
of the CARICOM Region, the policy framework is similarly geared to the
widening and deepening of the integration process through allowing for the free
movement of goods, services and factors of production and the rights of
establishment as reflected in the institution of the CARICOM Single Market and
Economy (CSME), Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ). The removal of barriers to
intra-regional investment and the deepening of intra-regional trade provide the
basis for competitive production by a process of access to resources, markets
and goods and services by all nationals of the Region. Among the outcomes of this duality of
globalisation and ICT are: intensive competition, greater interdependence of
economies and as a consequence increases in systemic risks. Culturally with the
increased connectivity of peoples there are likely to be effects. The loss of
preferential market access in Europe for our bananas and sugar has implications
for statistics needed in the restructuring process of our Member States, to
help individuals restructure their lives. 10. Added
to the above, for our Region there are also social an environment issues such
as HIV/AIDS and the tendency for natural disasters which affect our capacity to
develop our human resource and maintain our infrastructure. Undoubtedly, the central force driving the
economic policy environment in the Region is the opportunity being provided by
the establishment of the CSME for our economies to become more competitive,
to increase the size of our product and factor markets. 11. The
regional and national statistical programmes are therefore challenged to
provide the data needs to negotiate the establishment of the CSME. Currently, there is for example, the
regional merchandise trade database reflecting the application of a harmonised
Common External Tariff. This database
extends back to the early 1990s and is a reflection of the type of work
required in other areas of statistics. The Statistics Sub-programme was also
able to compile a database of the restrictions on services useful in enabling
the provision of a schedule for the removal of these restrictions by Member
States. 12. It is
recognised however, that national statistical systems must first produce harmonised
statistics or near harmonised, which requires well-coordinated and resourced
national statistical systems capable of submitting timely data to the regional
institution. Also required, will be
additional responsibility at the regional level to enable the production of
harmonised statistics in Member States, as well as increased facilitation of
funding and technical assistance to drive the statistical capacity-building processes. 13. With
the growing complexity of Economic, Social and Environment situations, in order
for systems to respond quickly, appropriately and effectively the forces of
change must be understood and these are recommended as follows: (i) The
convergence of IT, Communication and Information Technology and the increasing
pervasiveness of the Internet, which imply increasingly networked economies
and growing pools of Internet service providers; (ii) The increased pace of globalisation that
not only leads to more intensified competition but also greater interdependence
resulting in increases in systemic risks. 14. To channel the development of statistics in the right direction requires a work programme that reflects the relevance to current issues by incorporating: (i)
a strong
understanding of user needs including planning for the future needs of users
and involving users in methodological reviews and changes; (ii)
a National
Statistics Advisory Council supported by regional and national advisory groups; (iii)
regular
review of work programme and its associated priorities; (iv)
commitment
to evidence-based policy; (v)
effective
legislation to enable compliance by data providers. 15. Undeniably
success in improving statistics demands the use of creativity, innovation and visionary leadership and management
and the presence of adequate and highly skilled, motivated and committed staff.
The immediate challenges that lie ahead include compilation of a comprehensive
database on details with respect to services that can enable negotiations in
the international arena; flows of Foreign Direct Investment Statistics; 1993
SNA implementation; data on Free Movement of persons; and of course, a harmonised
set of core statistics in the areas of social, economic and environmental
statistics. 16. The
formulation of a statistical programme should lead to a more coherent approach
to the mobilisation of resources and greater efficiency in the use of these resources.
It should also foster improved collaboration of regional and international agencies
funding statistical projects since a common framework for statistical development
is available and agencies can easily identify specific areas of interest. 17. It is
therefore, opportune that a statistical programme for the Region be developed
to improve and harmonise the statistical information required for
decision-making, to reinforce the CSME, to monitor its impact, to enable the
participation of businesses and the people of the Region to better organise our Member States for
external competition and to deriving
the benefits from the expanded integration process. The opportunity is taken
through the SCCS to set the foundation of developing such a programme. 3.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WORK
PROGRAMME FOR THE REGION
Objectives
18. The
main objective of a common statistical programme for the Region is to identify
the minimum set of statistical activities to be carried out by the national
statistical systems in all Member States, consisting of regionally agreed to
frameworks, that can strengthen and improve the national and regional
statistical offices and agencies to provide timely, reliable and harmonised
data for all Member States. 19. This
document has been prepared as draft only, as an initial programme to set the
foundation for more extensive review. 20. The
regional programme is not intended to replace the national programmes or
sub-regional level initiatives and strategies but to synchronise and to put in
context the national programmes to better articulate and define the national
and regional statistical priorities based of course on the policies and the
decisions that they are to inform. Input from users and suppliers of statistics
will therefore be critical to the finalisation of this programme in the future.
21. The
main concerns of the draft programme are: (i) The
recognition that the national statistical systems are the cornerstone of the
production of statistics in the Region; (ii)
The need to
re-orient statistics to users and in particular to place statistical priorities
in the context of national and regional development; (iii)
The need for
a collaborative culture in the process of statistical development and to
recognise the different levels that operate to improve the system. At whatever level actions are implemented
there should be efficiency gains and the national statistical offices should
not be encumbered. Suggested elements of the
Statistical Programme
22. Tables
1 contains suggested elements of the Draft Statistical Programme that are: (i)
National
Accounts-1993 System of National Accounts Implementation; (ii)
International
Trade in Services and Foreign Direct Investment; (iii)
Merchandise
Trade Statistics; (iv)
Social
Statistics; (v)
Environment
Statistics; (vi)
Statistics
on Information Communication Technology; (vii)
Other
Statistics including Agricultural Statistics, Financial Statistics, Short-term
statistics; (viii)
Data
dissemination; (ix)
Statistical
Coordination. 23. For
each of the areas above, objectives; expected outputs; and actions have been
drafted. Further, it will also be necessary for each of the actions to list
detailed activities and agencies. Undoubtedly,
it will take a bit more research and deep-thinking and review to finalise the regional
programme and some of the more detailed aspects while these are presented, are
best left for the future deliberations of the technical advisory groups to
consider and make recommendations. Sustaining the processes - Work
Plan
Major challenges facing the
regional national statistical systems
24. General
information, situational assessment or inventories that have been conducted in
specific areas show: (i)
Inadequate
human, material and financial resources. Severe financial constraints mainly
due to low priority attached to statistics by governments. This leads to other
problems like staff shortages, lack of trained staff, high staff turnover; low
morale; poor remuneration, working conditions, under equipped offices and a
general lack of direction; (ii) Lack of clearly defined priorities and, coherent implementation plans and capacity for the collection of relevant and reliable statistics; (iii) Non-functioning statistical coordinating mechanism at the national level which may imply disparate and isolated national system leading to a lack of comprehensive internal harmonisation; (iv) Output that perhaps is not demand-driven and therefore does not target the needs of users. Over meet the confidence of users. The need exists for closer collaboration to establish a judicious balance to ensure that statistics produced are used; (v) Because of the gaps that exist between users and producers, often users attempt to conduct surveys to fill data gaps. Most of these have been motivated by the need to monitor and evaluate specific development projects; (vi) Inadequate attention paid to Social Statistics due to the traditional pre-occupation with Economic Statistics, even though this image is changing, there is the marked absence of the integration of social policy planning into the overall planning process; (vii) There is also a lack of standardization of definitions, methodologies of data collection procedures, methods of analysis and dissemination of data. This makes Regional comparison and monitoring of social systems difficult; (viii) Other major problems include the lack of computer hardware and software and adequately trained staff in Information Technology (IT). At the same time, it appears that different Member States have different preferences in the uses of computer software; (ix) Another major challenge relates to the need for statistical organisations to be more autonomous. Increased autonomy will enhance timeliness and the quality and perhaps the perception of objectivity relative to the output of the offices of the Region. Work Plan to Sustain the
Programme
25.
Costing of
the detailed activities relate to the need for additional resources is a
mammoth undertaking, and will require a more comprehensive evaluation in the
future. However, to some extent an
estimate of the contribution of the developmental work required in economic
statistics can be obtained out of the situational assessments and feasibility
study performed. These do not necessarily incorporate all the activities articulated
in the draft programme . 26. Among
the activities articulated for the improvement of statistics the following are
some major activities to be performed which also require the investment of
resources by governments: (i)
Dynamic
management of and investment in human resources to cover competitive remuneration/compensation
package and conditions of work for
statisticians, continuous training and retraining, adequate quantum of staff,
autonomy for statistics offices; (ii)
Review of
the legislative framework for the modernisation of statistics, enabling improved
statistical coordination, greater autonomy of statistical offices, fostering of
compliance to requests for data; (iii)
Compilation
of regional and national level databases/information in priority areas with
harmonised and reliable statistics on a timely basis as well as harmonised metadata
for correct interpretation by users; (iv)
Establishment
of statistical councils/coordinating committees and regional technical advisory,
SCCS advisory groups, and promoting seminars for users and suppliers of
information; (v)
A
Comprehensive data dissemination strategy that focuses on making available data
to users the data they require on a timely basis; (vi)
Generation of
a marketing strategy
to promote the income generation
potential of the regional and national statistical offices/programme. 27.
The regional
statistical system does not currently possess adequate resources to make a
substantive difference at the national level and is heavily dependent on donor
resources and technical assistance to implement regional and national level
activities. Organisation such as the
Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), the Economic Commission for Latin American
and the Caribbean (ECLAC) sub-regional headquarters, the Eastern Caribbean
Central Bank (ECCB) and the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) and more recently Caribbean
Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC)
have contributed to and continue to contribute to statistical development. At the international level UNSD, EU, CIDA,
SIDA, the World Bank, UNICEF, UNFPA and many other organisations are
contributing regional, sub-regional and national level support. 28. Taking
a look at the draft programme and considering the resources and operating
conditions at the national and regional levels undoubtedly brings to mind the
formidable challenge facing statistics and the near crisis stage that exists. The contextual issues discussed
earlier highlight the necessity to have reliable and timely statistics for the
design, implementation and evaluation of sustainable social and economic policies and the measurement and monitoring
of the outcomes of policies. ACTION REQUIRED 29. The
Meeting is invited to: (i)
consider the development of a draft statistical
programme for the Region; (ii)
endorse the need to develop such a programme; (iii)
provide feedback on the suggested elements in the
draft programme. ****** ATTACHMENT Table 1: Suggested Elements of a regional statistical work
programme
Programme Areas: National Accounts 1993 SNA
Implementation
Programme Area
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